Thursday, January 2, 2014
The road to Super Bowl XLVIII goes through Seattle in the NFC—seems only fitting that the one-seed Seahawks are all the way across the country.
As for the New Orleans Saints, the road to MetLife Stadium truly will come on the road. As the sixth seed in the NFC, New Orleans can't host a home playoff game no matter what upsets happen with the higher seeds.
The Saints finished with a perfect 8-0 home record, but struggled playing on the road. The team's 3-5 away record cost them a chance at the one or two seed.
To be fair, the Saints didn't lose to a bunch of Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars. New Orleans lost to the New England Patriots (No. 2 seed in the AFC), the Carolina Panthers (No. 2 seed in NFC) and the aforementioned Seahawks (No. 1 seed in the NFC). The Saints should feel no shame losing to those three teams on the road. Also, the Patriots and Panthers only escaped with last-second wins.
New Orleans' other road losses were against the New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams. The Jets finished second in the AFC East, and the Rams had a 7-9 record in the toughest division in football, the NFC West.
In every single one of those on-the-road losses, the Saints lost the turnover battle. Overcoming turnovers on the road is much harder than at home. If New Orleans is going to win three straight away games to reach the Super Bowl, the team has to win that turnover battle.
Another common thread: The Saints lost the rushing battle in four of their five losses. Other Saints problems include losing the time of possession in three of their five road losses. Finally, the Saints were sloppy on the road with penalties. New Orleans averaged seven penalties and 57 penalty yards per game. Saints' opponents averaged 5.4 penalties and 43 penalty yards per game.
It is a simple plan. New Orleans just has to win the turnover battle, win the rushing battle (which leads to winning time of possession) and eliminate penalties.
One thing to watch: Drew Brees had nine turnovers by himself (seven interceptions and two lost fumbles) in the Saints' five road losses. As great as Brees is, he has been a liability on the road.